The Influence of Repeated Activity on Event Probability

By Alexandra Sendrea

Let me take you back to when you were a child. You might have chosen between two possibilities by tossing a coin, and while it was in the air, you secretly hoped for one outcome over the other. But let’s say it didn’t land on the one you hoped for. What is the probability of getting the same result again? According to the Law of Truly Large Numbers, “even an event with a tiny chance of occurring can become almost certain if given enough opportunities.” So, influenced by the gambler's fallacy—that the desired outcome is bound to happen—what if it doesn't, and the undesirable outcome keeps occurring, turning into one of those so-called freak accidents?

Over time, due to the Law of Large Numbers, you would expect to see a 50-50 split in probability. But initially, you might feel unlucky. This shows that even in a controlled environment, humans are prone to misjudgment, often seeking patterns where none exist.

Let’s consider a case study of a person going skydiving. What makes us all unique is how we think and approach problems. While some people might not need to be asked twice to jump, others may feel compelled to double-check the safety measures. It’s a matter of confidence. But what if I told you that “Heteronomous morality begins to manifest itself in children between the ages of 4 and 7, coinciding with the preoperational stage of cognitive development according to Piaget's theory. During this period, children exhibit egocentric and concrete thinking, which influences their understanding of moral norms and their application in everyday situations.” This suggests that, after age 7, children’s perceptions of right and wrong become more fixed, affecting how quickly they are willing to put themselves in perceived danger.

As a beginner skydiver, your skills are based on what your instructor has taught you. You might participate in group sessions until you improve, but does that mean there is a higher probability of an accident? At this stage, if an accident were to occur, would people quit, sensing the danger? Would you need to experience it yourself before deciding to quit, even if the accident wasn’t your fault? However, this line of thinking is flawed because your presence at that moment wasn’t overlooked in the realm of probability and chance. You might think, “What is the probability of making the same mistake again?”

The response to an accident largely depends on one’s mindset. After an accident, you may initially become more careful. However, as time passes, the immediate impact of the incident may fade, leading many individuals to revert to their original behavior. This return to normalcy is common, especially when the trauma was less severe or the individual has effective coping mechanisms. In some cases, individuals may become careless, particularly if they have experienced multiple accidents without serious consequences. Conversely, some people might become more cautious, exhibiting increased alertness, anxiety, or avoidance behaviors. In more severe cases, individuals might develop Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), characterized by hyper-vigilance, heightened anxiety, and avoidance behaviors. The severity of these outcomes is often influenced by the level of support available at the time of the incident. But what combination of factors drives these different reactions?

You might conclude that the reason it happened to you is due to Murphy’s Law, which states that “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong, and at the worst possible time.” Let’s explore whether having an audience can affect individuals and increase the probability of failure. Imagine an athlete at the Olympics, where a false start occurs even though they’ve practiced the action thousands of times. Or consider a ballet dancer whose shoes come undone on stage, even though they used the same preparation techniques, like hairspray, as always. If this caused them to fall on stage, it would be a dancer’s worst nightmare.

As you gain experience and confidence in skydiving, your growing skills can reduce the pressure because you know how to handle situations as they arise. This ease of mind can actually increase risk, as you may be more likely to challenge yourself and engage in dangerous scenarios. This is evident in Red Bull athletes, although the brand takes measures to manage risks. You could also argue that external factors have a greater impact on us than our own actions, as seen with hikers on Mount Everest. On Everest, you rely on other people, and that risk is harder to control because so many factors can affect you. You might be the most prepared person possible, but in your group, someone might pass out due to altitude sickness, creating a new risk.

Understanding the role of mindset, experience, and external influences, such as social dynamics and support systems, can help us better predict and manage our responses to risk. Recognizing that our behavior is influenced by both internal and external factors highlights the importance of preparation, awareness, and adaptability in navigating life's uncertainties.

1https://www.mentesabiertaspsicologia.com/blog-psicologia/blog-psicologia/heteronomous-morality-definition-and-functioning-in-childhood   Accessed 27th August 2024.

2https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publications/post-traumatic-stress-disorder-ptsd Accessed 27th August 2024.